Dynamic Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Based on Land Use/Land Cover Change from 2000 to 2040: A Case Study of the Nanchang Urban Agglomeration

作者：Yuheng Fu, Min Huang, Daohong Gong, Hui Lin, Yewen Fan, Wenying Du · 发表于：Remote Sensing · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3390/rs15194645 · 被引用次数：40 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) constitutes a significant contributor to variations in the storage of carbon within ecosystems and holds substantial significance within the context of the carbon cycling process. This study analyzed land use data from the Nanchang urban agglomeration in 2000 and 2020 to investigate changes in land use and carbon storage using the PLUS model and GIS. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the Nanchang urban agglomeration experienced reductions in the extents of croplands, woodlands, grasslands, and unused lands. The predominant trend in land transformation involved the conversion of cropland into built-up land. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, there was a declining trajectory observed in carbon storage for the Nanchang urban agglomeration, with an overall decrease of 1.13 × 107 t. The space is characterized by a high-altitude perimeter and a low-altitude center. Urbanization’s encroachment on cropland is the main reason for declining carbon storage. (3) The predictive outcomes reveal that, in 2040, carbon storage in the Nanchang urban agglomeration will be reduced by 1.00 × 107 t under the natural development scenario, and reduced by 3.90 × 106 t and increased by 2.29 × 105 t, respectively, under the cropland protection and ecological protection scenarios. The risk of carbon loss is significantly reduced by ecological protection policy interventions. Our analysis of the land use patterns and carbon storage distribution in the Nancha...