Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

作者：Stephen Kaptoge, SRK Seshasai, Liang Sun, Mark Walker, Tom Bolton, Sue Spackman, Feven Ataklte, Peter Willeit, Steven Bell, Stephen Burgess, Lisa Pennells, Servet Altay, Gerd Assmann, Yoav Ben‐Shlomo, LG Best, Cecilia Björkelund, D.T. Blazer, Hermann Brenner, Eric J. Brunner, Dagenais Gr, John A. Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, CJ Crespo, Mary Cushman, RB D’Agostino, Makoto Daimon, Lori B. Daniels, Rosie Danker, Karina W. Davidson, RT de Jongh, Chiara Donfrancesco, Pierre Ducimetière, PJM Elders, Gunnar Engström, Ian Ford, I Gallacher, SJL Bakker, Uri Goldbourt, G de La Cámara, Sameline Grimsgaard, Vilmundur Guðnason, PO Hansson, Hironori Imano, J. Wouter Jukema, Christopher Kabrhel, Jussi Kauhanen, Maryam Kavousi, Stefan Kiechl, Matthew Knuiman, Daan Kromhout, HM Krumholz, Kuller Lh, Tiina Laatikainen, DA Lowler, HE Meyer, Kenneth J. Mukamal, Paul J. Nietert, Toshiharu Ninomiya, Dorothea Nitsch, Børge G. Nordestgaard, Luigi Palmieri, Jackie F. Price, P. M. Ridker, Qi Sun, Annika Rosengren, Ronan Roussel, Masaru Sakurai, Veikko Salomaa, Ben Schöttker, JE Shaw, Timo Strandberg, Johan Sundström, Hanna Tolonen, Aage Tverdal, WMM Verschuren, Henry Völzke, Lynne E. Wagenknecht, RB Wallace, S. Goya Wannamethee, N J Wareham, Sylvia Wassertheil‐Smoller, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Bu B. Yeap, Seamus C. Harrison, Michael Inouye, Simon J. Griffin, AS Butterworth, Angela Wood, SG Thompson, Naveed Sattar, John Danesh, Emanuele Di Angelantonio, RW Tipping, Sarah Russell, Michelle C. Johansen, MP Bancks, Morgana Mongraw‐Chaffin, Dianna J. Magliano, ELM Barr, PZ Zimmet, Matthew Knuiman, Peter H. Whincup, Johann Willeit, Peter Willeit, Christoph Leitner, Debbie A. Lawlor, Yoav Ben‐Shlomo, P C Elwood, Susan E. Sutherland, Kelly J. Hunt, Mary Cushman, RM Selmer, LL Haheim, Inger Ariansen, A Tybjaer-Hansen, R Frikkle-Schmidt, Anne Langsted, Chiara Donfrancesco, Cinzia Lo Noce, Beverley Balkau, Fabrice Bonnet, Frédéric Fumeron, DL Pablos, CR Ferro, T Julieth Parra Morales, Stela McLachlan, Jack M. Guralnik, K-T Khaw, Hermann Brenner, Bernd Holleczek, Hannah Stocker, Aulikki Nissinen, Luigi Palmieri, Erkki Vartiainen, Pekka Jousilahti, Kennet Harald, JM Massaro, Michael Pencina, Asya Lyass, Shinji Susa, Toshihide Oizumi, Takamasa Kayama, Angela Chetrit, Jesse Roth, Liat Orenstein, Lennart Welin, Kurt Svärdsudd, Lauren Lissner, Dominique Hange, Kirsten Mehlig, Veikko Salomaa, R. S. Tilvis, Elaine Dennison, Cyrus Cooper, Leo D. Westbury, PE Norman, Osvaldo P. Almeida, Graeme J. Hankey, Jun Hata, Mamoru Shibata, Yoshihiko Furuta, MT Bom, Femke Rutters, Mirthe Muilwijk, Peter Kraft, Sara Lindström, Constance Turman, Masahiko Kiyama, Akihiko Kitamura, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Yariv Gerber, Tiina Laatikainen, J T Salonen, LN van Schoor, EM van Zutphen, WMM Verschuren, Gunnar Engström, Olle Melander, BM Psaty, Michael J. Blaha, IH de Boer, RA Kronmal, Naveed Sattar, Annika Rosengren, Dorothea Nitsch, G Grandits, Aage Tverdal, HC Shin, JR Albertorio, RF Gillum, FB Hu, John A. Cooper, Steve E. Humphries, F Hill- Briggs, Elizabeth A. Vrany, Melissa G. Butler, JE Schwartz, Masahiko Kiyama, Akihiko Kitamura, Hiroyasu Iso, Philippe Amouyel, Dominique Arveiler, Jean Ferrières, RT Gansevoort, Rudolf A. de Boer, Lyanne M. Kieneker, CJ Crespo, Gerd Assmann, Stella Trompet, Patricia M. Kearney, Bernard Cantin, JP Després, Benoı̂t Lamarche, Gail A. Laughlin, Linda K. McEvoy, Thor Aspelund, B Thorsson, Gunnar Sigurðsson, Martijn J. Tilly, MA Ikram, Marcus Dörr, Sabine Schipf, Henry Völzke, AM Fretts, JG Umans, Tauqeer Ali, Nawar Shara, G Davey-Smith, Günay Can, H. Gülru Yüksel, Uğur Özkan, H. Nakagawa, Yuko Morikawa, Masao Ishizaki, Inger Njølstad, Tom Wilsgaard, Ellisiv B. Mathiesen, Johan Sundström, Julie E. Buring, Nancy R. Cook, Volker Arndt, Dietrich Rothenbacher, JoAnn E. Manson, Lesley F. Tinker, M Shipley, Ádám G. Tabák, Mika Kivimäki, Chris J. Packard, Michele Robertson, Edith J. M. Feskens, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Daan Kromhout · 发表于：The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/s2213-8587(23)00223-1 · 被引用次数：227 · 研究领域：Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins、Diabetes Management and Education、Chronic Disease Management Strategies

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy. METHODS: For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU. FINDINGS: For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) a...