Mapping global zoonotic niche and interregional transmission risk of monkeypox: a retrospective observational study

作者：Yan-Qun Sun, Jinjin Chen, Meichen Liu, Yuanyuan Zhang, Tao Wang, Tian-Le Che, Tingting Li, Yanning Liu, Ai-Ying Teng, Bing-Zheng Wu, Xue-Geng Hong, Qiang Xu, Chen‐Long Lv, Bao‐Gui Jiang, Wei Liu, Li‐Qun Fang · 发表于：Globalization and Health · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1186/s12992-023-00959-0 · 被引用次数：15 · 研究领域：Poxvirus research and outbreaks、Herpesvirus Infections and Treatments、Polyomavirus and related diseases

Abstract Background Outbreaks of monkeypox have been ongoing in non-endemic countries since May 2022. A thorough assessment of its global zoonotic niche and potential transmission risk is lacking. Methods We established an integrated database on global monkeypox virus (MPXV) occurrence during 1958 − 2022. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to examine the evolution of MPXV and effective reproductive number (R t ) was estimated over time to examine the dynamic of MPXV transmissibility. The potential ecological drivers of zoonotic transmission and inter-regional transmission risks of MPXV were examined. Results As of 24 July 2022, a total of 49 432 human patients with MPXV infections have been reported in 78 countries. Based on 525 whole genome sequences, two main clades of MPXV were formed, of which Congo Basin clade has a higher transmissibility than West African clade before the 2022-monkeypox, estimated by the overall R t (0.81 vs. 0.56), and the latter significantly increased in the recent decade. R t of 2022-monkeypox varied from 1.14 to 4.24 among the 15 continuously epidemic countries outside Africa, with the top three as Peru (4.24, 95% CI: 2.89–6.71), Brazil (3.45, 95% CI: 1.62–7.00) and the United States (2.44, 95% CI: 1.62–3.60). The zoonotic niche of MPXV was associated with the distributions of Graphiurus lorraineus and Graphiurus crassicaudatus , the richness of Rodentia, and four ecoclimatic indicators. Besides endemic areas in Africa, more areas of South Americ...