TAFFNet: Time‐Aware Adaptive Feature Fusion Network for Very Short‐Term Precipitation Forecasts

作者：Jingnan Wang, Xiaodong Wang, Jiping Guan, Lifeng Zhang, Jie Zhou · 发表于：Geophysical Research Letters · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1029/2023gl104370 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations、Precipitation Measurement and Analysis、Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Abstract Deep learning models based on radar echo extrapolation have been widely used in precipitation nowcasting. However, they face the challenge of insufficient input information when extending the forecast lead time, requiring the incorporation of physics‐based numerical weather prediction (NWP). Given that the strengths of radar and NWP data vary depending on the forecast time, effectively fusing these two data sources in a unified deep learning model remains an open research problem. In this study, we propose a Time‐aware Adaptive Feature Fusion Network (TAFFNet) for very short‐term precipitation forecasts up to 12 hr. TAFFNet fuses features adaptively according to their relative contributions to forecast skill at different times. Experimental results demonstrate that TAFFNet performs the best for very short‐term precipitation forecasts. The case studies show that adaptively fusing NWP with radar can improve the accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially for predicting the initiation and dissipation of storms at longer lead times.