Development and validation of a prognostic model of survival for classic heatstroke patients: A multicenter study

作者：Yu Wang, Donglin Li, Zongqian Wu, Chuan Zhong, Shengjie Tang, Haiyang Hu, Pei Lin, Xianqing Yang, Jiangming Liu, Haining Zhou, Fake Liu, Xinyi He · 发表于：Research Square · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.21203/rs.3.rs-3193855/v1 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Thermoregulation and physiological responses、Thermal Regulation in Medicine

Abstract Background Classic heatstroke (CHS) is a life-threatening illness characterized by extreme hyperthermia, dysfunction of the central nervous system and multiorgan failure. Accurate predictive models are useful in the treatment decision-making process and risk stratification.This study was to develop and externally validate a prediction model of survival for hospitalized patients with CHS. Methods In this retrospective study, we enrolled patients with CHS who were hospitalized from June 2022 to September 2022 at 3 hospitals in Southwest Sichuan (training cohort) and 1 hospital in Central Sichuan (external validation cohort). Prognostic factors were identified utilizing least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariate Cox regression analysis in the training cohort. A predictive model was developed based on identified prognostic factors, and a nomogram was built for visualization. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) and the calibration curve were utilized to assess the prognostic performance of the model in both the training and external validation cohorts. The Kaplan‒Meier method was used to calculate survival rates. Result A total of 189 patients (median age, 75 [68–81] years) were included. Social isolation, self-care ability, comorbidities, body temperature, heart rate, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), procalcitonin (PCT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and diarrhea were found to have a signi...