Coupled effects of land use and climate change on water supply in SSP–RCP scenarios: A case study of the Ganjiang River Basin, China

作者：Jia Tang, Peihao Song, Xijun Hu, Cunyou Chen, Baojing Wei, Siwen Zhao · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110745 · 被引用次数：54 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Water resources management and optimization、Climate change impacts on agriculture

Coupling land use and climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway (SSP–RCP) scenarios can provide more accurate predictions of water supply risks, thereby supporting decision-making for spatial planning with a focus on climate adaptation. Climate change exhibits spatial and temporal differences. To meet the requirements of spatial planning, further research is needed to assess water supply risks at different basin or regional scales. In this study, we selected four SSP–RCP scenarios for analysis, considering the temporal scale of spatial planning. The climate modeling capabilities of five global climate models (GCMs) and a multi-model ensemble (MME) were evaluated using a Taylor diagram, which assesses the performance of climate element simulations. The modeling framework that consisted of system dynamics (SD), patch-generating land-use simulations (PLUS), and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to analyze synergistic changes in climate, land use, and water supply. The Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) serves as a case study for climate-adaptive planning at the basin scale, given its characteristics of high agricultural water demand and vulnerability to droughts and floods. The study aims to provide decision-making support for such planning. In our projections, precipitation in the GRB showed a slightly increasing trend from 2021 to 2050. Monthly precipitation increases during the flood season in August and decreases duri...