Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration

作者：Joanne M. Morten, Pearse Buchanan, Carsten Egevang, Isolde Glissenaar, Sara M. Maxwell, Nicole Parr, James A. Screen, Freydís Vigfúsdóttir, Noam Vogt-Vincent, Daniel A. Williams, Ned C. Williams, Matthew J. Witt, Lucy A. Hawkes, William P. Thurston · 发表于：Global Change Biology · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1111/gcb.16891 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Avian ecology and behavior、Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics、Climate variability and models

Abstract Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st‐century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non‐breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End‐of‐century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi‐model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: ‘middle‐of‐the‐road’ and ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a ‘fossil‐fuelled development’ scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s −1 ) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift rou...