The importance of expert selection when identifying threatened ecosystems

作者：Samantha K. Travers, Josh Dorrough, Ian Shannon, James Val, Mitchell L. Scott, Claudine J. Moutou, Ian Oliver · 发表于：Conservation Biology · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1111/cobi.14151 · 被引用次数：8 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Identifying threatened ecosystem types is fundamental to conservation and management decision-making. When identification relies on expert judgment, decisions are vulnerable to inconsistent outcomes and can lack transparency. We elicited judgements of the occurrence of a widespread, critically endangered Australian ecosystem from a diverse pool of 83 experts. We asked 4 questions. First, how many experts are required to reliably conclude that the ecosystem is present? Second, how many experts are required to build a reliable model for predicting ecosystem presence? Third, given expert selection can narrow the range opinions, if enough experts are selected, do selection strategies affect model predictions? Finally, does a diverse selection of experts provide better model predictions? We used power and sample size calculations with a finite population of 200 experts to calculate the number of experts required to reliably assess ecosystem presence in a theoretical scenario. We then used boosted regression trees to model expert elicitation of 122 plots based on real-world data. For a reliable consensus (90% probability of correctly identifying presence and absence) in a relatively certain scenario (85% probability of occurrence), at least 17 experts were required. More experts were required when occurrence was less certain, and fewer were needed if permissible error rates were relaxed. In comparison, only ∼20 experts were required for a reliable model that could predict for a ran...