Spatial distribution and driving factors of the associations between temperature and influenza-like illness in the United States: a time-stratified case-crossover study

作者：Yongli Yang, Jiao Lian, Xiaocan Jia, Tianrun Wang, Jingwen Fan, Chaojun Yang, Yuping Wang, Junzhe Bao · 发表于：BMC Public Health · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1186/s12889-023-16240-3 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：Influenza Virus Research Studies、COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Respiratory viral infections research

BACKGROUND: Several previous studies investigated the associations between temperature and influenza in a single city or region without a national picture. The attributable risk of influenza due to temperature and the corresponding driving factors were unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution characteristics of attributable risk of Influenza-like illness (ILI) caused by adverse temperatures and explore the related driving factors in the United States. METHODS: of 48 states in the United States were collected during 2011-2019. The time-stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model was carried out to evaluate the association between temperature and ILI at the state level. The multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the combined effects at the national level. The attributable fraction (AF) was calculated to assess the ILI burden ascribed to adverse temperatures. The ordinary least square model (OLS), spatial lag model (SLM), and spatial error model (SEM) were utilized to identify driving factors. RESULTS: A total of 7,716,115 ILI cases were included in this study. Overall, the temperature was negatively associated with ILI risk, and lower temperature gave rise to a higher risk of ILI. AF ascribed to adverse temperatures differed across states, from 49.44% (95% eCI: 36.47% ~ 58.68%) in Montana to 6.51% (95% eCI: -6.49% ~ 16.46%) in Wisconsin. At the national level, 29.08% (95% eCI: 27.60% ~ 30.24%) of ILI was attributabl...