An ecological assessment of the potential pandemic threat of Dengue Virus in Zhejiang province of China

作者：Yaxing Zhang, Lei Wang, G.Z. Wang, Jiabao Xu, Tianxing Zhang · 发表于：BMC Infectious Diseases · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1186/s12879-023-08444-0 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Dengue and Mosquito Control Research、Zoonotic diseases and public health

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Dengue fever, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a significant public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions. With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the reopening of the borders, dengue fever remains a threat to mainland China, Zhejiang province of China is facing a huge risk of importing the dengue virus. This study aims to analyze and predict the current and future potential risk regions for Aedes vectors distribution and dengue prevalence in Zhejiang province of China. METHOD: We collected occurrence records of DENV and DENV vectors globally from 2010 to 2022, along with historical and future climate data and human population density data. In order to predict the probability of DENV distribution in Zhejiang province of China under future conditions, the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was first performed with historical climate data based on MaxEnt. Then, predicted results along with a set of bioclimatic variables, elevation and human population density were included in MaxEnt model to analyze the risk region of DENV in Zhejiang province. Finally, the established model was utilized to predict the spatial pattern of DENV risk in the current and future scenarios in Zhejiang province of China. RESULTS: ) classified as high risk area for DENV prevalence. Ae. albopictus were identified as the primary factor influencing the distribution of DENV. Future predictions suggest that sustainable and "green" development pathways may...