SIPN South: six years of coordinated seasonal Antarctic sea ice predictions

作者：François Massonnet, Sandra Barreira, Antoine Barthélemy, Roberto Bilbao, Edward Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Ed Blockley, David H. Bromwich, Mitchell Bushuk, Xiaoran Dong, Helge Goessling, Will Hobbs, Doroteaciro Iovino, Woosung Lee, Cuihua Li, Walter N. Meier, William J. Merryfield, Eduardo Moreno‐Chamarro, Yushi Morioka, Xuewei Li, Bimochan Niraula, Alek Petty, Antonella Sanna, Mariana Scilingo, Qi Shu, Michael Sigmond, Nico Sun, Steffen Tietsche, Xingren Wu, Qinghua Yang, Xiaojun Yuan · 发表于：Frontiers in Marine Science · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3389/fmars.2023.1148899 · 被引用次数：32 · 研究领域：Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics、Cryospheric studies and observations、Climate variability and models

Antarctic sea ice prediction has garnered increasing attention in recent years, particularly in the context of the recent record lows of February 2022 and 2023. As Antarctica becomes a climate change hotspot, as polar tourism booms, and as scientific expeditions continue to explore this remote continent, the capacity to anticipate sea ice conditions weeks to months in advance is in increasing demand. Spurred by recent studies that uncovered physical mechanisms of Antarctic sea ice predictability and by the intriguing large variations of the observed sea ice extent in recent years, the Sea Ice Prediction Network South (SIPN South) project was initiated in 2017, building upon the Arctic Sea Ice Prediction Network. The SIPN South project annually coordinates spring-to-summer predictions of Antarctic sea ice conditions, to allow robust evaluation and intercomparison, and to guide future development in polar prediction systems. In this paper, we present and discuss the initial SIPN South results collected over six summer seasons (December-February 2017-2018 to 2022-2023). We use data from 22 unique contributors spanning five continents that have together delivered more than 3000 individual forecasts of sea ice area and concentration. The SIPN South median forecast of the circumpolar sea ice area captures the sign of the recent negative anomalies, and the verifying observations are systematically included in the 10-90% range of the forecast distribution. These statements also hold ...