Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

作者：Kanyin Liane Ong, Lauryn K Stafford, Susan A. McLaughlin, Edward J. Boyko, Stein Emil Vollset, Amanda Smith, Bronte Dalton, J Duprey, Jessica A Cruz, Hailey Hagins, Paulina A Lindstedt, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Abate, Melsew Dagne Abate, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi‐Kangevari, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Rami Abd‐Rabu, Deldar Morad Abdulah, Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah, Vida Abedi, Hassan Abidi, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Eman Abu‐Gharbieh, Ahmed Abu‐Zaid, Tigist Demssew Adane, Denberu Eshetie Adane, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Victor Abiola Adepoju, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Gina Agarwal, Zahra Babaei Aghdam, Marcela Agudelo‐Botero, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada, Williams Agyemang‐Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Danish Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Ali Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Ayman Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Luai A. Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Rufus Akinyemi, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Tariq A. Alalwan, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde‐Rabanal, Sharifullah Alemi, Hassam Ali, Tahereh Alinia, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sami Almustanyir, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Firehiwot Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Sohrab Amiri, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Adnan Ansar, Golnoosh Ansari, Alireza Ansari‐Moghaddam, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Demelash Areda, Hidayat Arifin, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Zahra Aryan, Mulu Tiruneh, Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi, Elaheh Askari, Daniel Asmelash, Thomas Astell‐Burt, Mohammad Athar, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Atout, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Ahmed Awaisu, Sina Azadnajafabad, B B Darshan, Hassan Babamohamadi, Muhammad Badar, Alaa Badawi, Ashish Badiye, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Sulaiman Bah, Saeed Bahadory, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Hamid Reza Baradaran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Noël C. Barengo, Till Bärnighausen, Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone, Francesco Barone‐Adesi, Amadou Barrow, Hamideh Bashiri, Afisu Basiru, Sanjay Basu, Saurav Basu, Abdul‐Monim Batiha, Kavita Batra, Mulat Tirfie Bayih, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Alehegn Bekele Bekele, Melaku Ashagrie Belete, Uzma Belgaumi, Luı́s Belo, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Sonu Bhaskar, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Boris Bikbov, Faiq Bilal, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Saeid Bitaraf, Veera Raghavulu Bitra, Vesna Bjegović-Mikanović, Virgínia Bodolica, Archith Boloor, Michael Bräuer, Javier Brazo‐Sayavera, Hermann Brenner, Zahid A Butt, Daniela Călina, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Yin Cao, Chao Cao, Josip Car, Márcia Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Eeshwar K Chandrasekar, Gashaw Sisay Chanie, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Kirti Chauhan, Huzaifa Ahmad Cheema, Endeshaw Chekol Abebe, Simiao Chen, Nicolas Cherbuin, Fatemeh Chichagi, Saravana Babu Chidambaram, William C. Cho, Sonali G Choudhari, Rajiv Chowdhury, E. Chowdhury, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Sheng‐Chia Chung, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Daniela Contreras, Ewerton Cousin, Michael H Criqui, Natália Martins, Sarah Cuschieri, Bashir Dabo, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Albertino Damasceno, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Saswati Das, Ana Maria Dascălu, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Mohsen Dashti, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Vanessa De la Cruz‐Góngora, Gebiso Roba Debele, Kourosh Delpasand, Fitsum Wolde Demisse, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Xin Deng, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Salil V. Deo, Emina Dervišević, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Aragaw Tesfaw Desale, Anteneh Mengist Dessie, Fikreab Desta, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Sourav Dey, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Nancy Diao, Daniel Díaz, Monica Dinu, Mengistie Diress, Shirin Djalalinia, Linh Phuong Doan, Deepa Dongarwar, Francisco Winter dos Santos Figueiredo, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Siddhartha Dutta, Arkadiusz Dziedzic, Hisham Atan Edinur, Michael Ekholuenetale, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Islam Y. Elgendy, Muhammed Elhadi, Waseem El‐Huneidi, Omar El Meligy, Mohamed A. Elmonem, Destaw Endeshaw, Hawi Leul Esayas, Habitu Birhan Eshetu, Farshid Etaee, Ibtihal Fadhil, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Ayesha Fahim, Shahab Falahi, MoezAlIslam E. Faris, Hossein Farrokhpour, Farshad Farzadfar, Ali Fatehizadeh, Ghazal S. Fazli, Xiaoqi Feng, Tomas Y Ferede, Florian Fischer, David Flood, Ali Forouhari, Roham Foroumadi, Masoumeh Foroutan Koudehi, Abhay Gaidhane, Santosh Gaihre, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Yaseen Galali, Balasankar Ganesan, Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo, Rupesh K. Gautam, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Lemma Getacher, Fataneh Ghadirian, Seyyed‐Hadi Ghamari, Mohammad Ghasemi Nour, Fariba Ghassemi, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Habtamu Alganeh Guadie, Shi‐Yang Guan, Temesgen Worku Gudayu, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Rashid Abdi Guled, Rajeev Gupta, Kartik Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Gupta, Bishal Gyawali, Rasool Haddadi, Najah R Hadi, Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Rabih Halwani, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Md. Abdul Hannan, Shafiul Haque, Hamid Harandi, Netanja I. Harlianto, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Syed Shahzad Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Soheil Hassanipour, Mohammed Bheser Hassen, Johannes Haubold, Khezar Hayat, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Kamran Hessami, Yuta Hiraike, Ramesh Holla, Sahadat Hossain, Md Shakhaoat Hossain, Mohammad‐Salar Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Junjie Huang, Md. Nazmul Huda, Salman Hussain, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing‐Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Nayu Ikeda, Irena Ilić, Milena Ilić, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rakibul M. Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Ramaiah Itumalla, Masao Iwagami, Chidozie C D Iwu, Ihoghosa Iyamu, Assefa N Iyasu, Louis Jacob, Abdollah Jafarzadeh, Haitham Jahrami, Rajesh Jain, C. Jaja, Zahra Jamalpoor, Elham Jamshidi, Balamurugan Janakiraman, Krishnamurthy Jayanna, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Ranil Jayawardena, Rime Jebai, Wonjeong Jeong, Yinzi Jin, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B. Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Abel Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Billingsley Kaambwa, Ali Kabir, Robel Hussen Kabthymer, Vidya Kadashetti, Farima Kahe, Rohollah Kalhor, Himal Kandel, Shama D. Karanth, Ibraheem M. Karaye, Samad Karkhah, Patrick DMC Katoto, Navjot Kaur, Sina Kazemian, Sewnet Adem Kebede, Yousef Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Moien AB Khan, Maseer Khan, Ajmal Khan, Saval Khanal, Moawiah Khatatbeh, Amir M Khater, Sorour Khateri, Fatemeh Khorashadizadeh, Jagdish Khubchandani, Biruk Getahun Kibret, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kısa, Mika Kivimäki, Ali‐Asghar Kolahi, Somayeh Komaki, Farzad Kompani, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Oleksii Korzh, Karel Kostev, Nikhil Kothari, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Mohammed Kuddus, Md Abdul Kuddus, Rakesh Kumar, Harish Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Carlo La Vecchia, Tea Lallukka, Bagher Larijani, Anders Larsson, Kamaluddin Latief, Basira Kankia Lawal, Thao T. Le, Trang Thi Bich Le, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Munjae Lee, Wei‐Chen Lee, Paul H. Lee, Sang-woong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, Jacopo Lenzi, Yongze Li, Ming‐Chieh Li, Stephen S Lim, Lee‐Ling Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Chaojie Liu, Chun‐Han Lo, Graciliana Lopes, Stefan Lorkowski, Rafael Lozano, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Azzam A. Maghazachi, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Razzagh Mahmoudi, Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh, Anh Tuan Mai, Azeem Majeed, Pantea Majma Sanaye, Konstantinos C. Makris, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah Al Mamun, Borhan Mansouri, Hamid Reza Marateb, Parham Mardi, Santi Martini, Miquel Martorell, Roy Rillera Marzo, Reza Masoudi, Sahar Masoudi, Elezebeth Mathews, Andrea Maugeri, Giampiero Mazzaglia, Teferi Mekonnen, Mahboobeh Meshkat, Tomislav Meštrović, Junmei Miao Jonasson, Tomasz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michałek, Le Huu Nhat Minh, GK Mini, J. Jaime Miranda, Reza Mirfakhraie, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Mohammad Mirza‐Aghazadeh‐Attari, Awoke Misganaw, Kebede Haile Misgina, Manish Mishra, Babak Moazen, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Mohsen Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Marita Mohammadshahi, Alireza Mohseni, Hoda Mojiri-Forushani, Ali H. Mokdad, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Md. Moniruzzaman, Ute Mons, Fateme Montazeri, AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf, Yousef Moradi, Maryam Moradi, Mostafa Moradi Sarabi, Negar Morovatdar, Shane D. Morrison, Jakub Morze, Elías Mossialos, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Ulrich Müeller, Francesk Mulita, Admir Mulita, Efrén Murillo‐Zamora, Kamarul Imran Musa, Julius Chacha Mwita, Shankar Prasad Nagaraju, Mohsen Naghavi, Firzan Nainu, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Hastyar Hama Rashid Najmuldeen, Vinay Nangia, Shumaila Nargus, Abdallah Y. Naser, Hasan Nassereldine, Zuhair S. Natto, Javaid Nauman, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Rawlance Ndejjo, Hadush Negash, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Dang Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, Văn Thành Nguyễn, Hien Quang Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Muhammad A Nizam, Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi, Mamoona Noreen, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Nkechi Martina Odogwu, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Vivek Anand Ojha, Hassan Okati‐Aliabad, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Patrick Godwin Okwute, Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa, Obinna Onwujekwe, Michał Ordak, Alberto Ortíz, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Abderrahim Oulhaj, Mayowa Owolabi, Alicia Padrón‐Monedero, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Raffaele Palladino, Demosthenes B. Panagiotakos, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Ashok Pandey, Anamika Pandey, Seithikurippu R. Pandi‐Perumal, Anca Pantea Stoian, Shahina Pardhan, Tarang Parekh, Utsav Parekh, Maja Pasovic, Jay Patel, Jenil Patel, Uttam Paudel, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Marcos Pereira, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Vivek Podder, Maarten J. Postma, Ghazaleh Pourali, Naeimeh Pourtaheri, Elton Junio Sady Prates, Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir, Ibrahim Qattea, Pourya Raee, Ibrar Rafique, Mehran Rahimi, Mahban Rahimifard, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Obaidur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Md. Mosfequr Rahman, Mohamed Rahmani, Shayan Rahmani, Vahid Rahmanian, Setyaningrum Rahmawaty, Niloufar Rahnavard, Bibek Rajbhandari, Pradhum Ram, Sheena Ramazanu, Juwel Rana, Nemanja Rančić, Muhammad Modassar Ali Nawaz Ranjha, Chythra R Rao, Deepthi Rapaka, Drona Rasali, Sina Rashedi, Vahid Rashedi, Ahmed Mustafa Rashid, Mohammad‐Mahdi Rashidi, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Elrashdy M. Redwan, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Kannan R. R. Rengasamy, André M. N. Renzaho, Luis Felipe Reyes, Nima Rezaei, Nazila Rezaei, Mohsen Rezaeian, Hossein Rezazadeh, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Yohanes Andy Rias, Muhammad Riaz, Daniela Ribeiro, Mónica Rodrigues, Jefferson Antonio Buendía, Leonardo Roever, Peter Rohloff, Gholamreza Roshandel, Abazar Roustazadeh, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Aly M A Saad, Maha Saber-Ayad, Siamak Sabour, Leila Sabzmakan, Basema Saddik, Erfan Sadeghi, Umar Saeed, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Sare Safi, Sher Zaman Safi, Amene Saghazadeh, Narjes Saheb Sharif‐Askari, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif‐Askari, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Soumya Swaroop Sahoo, Harihar Sahoo, KM Saif‐Ur‐Rahman, Mirza Rizwan Sajid, Sarvenaz Salahi, Saina Salahi, Mohamed A. Saleh, Mohammad Amin Salehi, Joshua A. Salomon, Juan Sanabria, Rama Krishna Sanjeev, Francesco Sanmarchi, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Made Ary Sarasmita, Saman Sargazi, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Monika Sawhney, Markus P. Schlaich, María Inês Schmidt, Art Schuermans, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Yashendra Sethi, Allen Seylani, Maryam Shabani, Tahereh Shafaghat, Melika Shafeghat, Mahan Shafie, Nilay S. Shah, Samiah Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mohd Shanawaz, Mohammed Shannawaz, Sadaf Sharfaei, Bereket Beyene Shashamo, Rahman Shiri, Aminu Shittu, K. M. Shivakumar, Siddharudha Shivalli, Parnian Shobeiri, Fereshteh Shokri, Kerem Shuval, Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat, Luís R. Silva, Colin R Simpson, Ambrish Singh, Paramdeep Singh, Surjit Singh, Md Shahjahan Siraj, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Abdullah Al Mamun Sohag, Hamidreza Soleimani, Solikhah Solikhah, Mohammad Sadegh Soltani‐Zangbar, Ranjani Somayaji, Reed J D Sorensen, А. В. Стародубова, Sujata Sujata, Muhammad Suleman, Jing Sun, Johan Sundström, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei, Seyed‐Amir Tabatabaeizadeh, Mohammad Tabish, Majid Taheri, Ensiyeh Taheri, Elahe Taki, Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi, Ker‐Kan Tan, Nathan Y Tat, Birhan Tsegaw Taye, Worku Animaw Temesgen, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Riki Tesler, Pugazhenthan Thangaraju, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Rajshree Thapa, Samar Tharwat, Nihal Thomas, Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu, Amir Tiyuri, Marcello Tonelli, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Domenico Tricò, Indang Trihandini, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Samuel Tromans, Guesh Mebrahtom Tsegay, Abdul Rohim Tualeka, Derara Girma Tufa, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Sana Ullah, Era Upadhyay, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Rohollah Valizadeh, Kim Robin van Daalen, Priya Vart, Shoban Babu Varthya, Tommi Vasankari, Siavash Vaziri, Madhur Verma, Georgios‐Ioannis Verras, Danh Cao Vo, Birhanu Wagaye, Yasir Waheed, Ziyue Wang, Yanqing Wang, Cong Wang, Fang Wang, Gizachew Tadesse Wassie, Melissa Y. Wei, Abrha Hailay Weldemariam, Ronny Westerman, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Yifan Wu, Ratna Dwi Wulandari, Juan Xia, Hong Xiao, Suowen Xu, Xiaoyue Xu, Dereje Y Yada, Lin Yang, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Metin Yeşiltepe, Siyan Yi, Hunachew Kibret Yohannis, Naohiro Yonemoto, Yuyi You, Sojib Bin Zaman, Nelson Zamora, Iman Zare, Kourosh Zarea, Armin Zarrintan, Михаил Сергеевич Застрожин, Naod Gebrekrstos Zeru, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Jingjing Zhou, Magdalena Zielińska, Yossef Teshome Zikarg, Sanjay Zodpey, Mohammad Zoladl, Zhiyong Zou, Alimuddin Zumla, Yves Miel H Zuñiga, Dianna J. Magliano, Christopher J L Murray, Simon I Hay, Theo Vos · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01301-6 · 被引用次数：4473 · 研究领域：Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins、Diabetes and associated disorders、Diabetes Management and Research

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data fr...