Description of the first global outbreak of mpox: an analysis of global surveillance data

作者：Henry Laurenson‐Schafer, Nikola Sklenovská, Ana Hoxha, Steven M. Kerr, Patricia Ndumbi, Julia Fitzner, María Almirón, Luís Alves de Sousa, Sylvie Briand, Orlando Cenciarelli, Soledad Colombe, Meg Doherty, Ibrahima Socé Fall, Christian García, Joana M. Haussig, Masaya Kato, Abdi Rahman Mahamud, Oliver Morgan, Pierre Nabeth, Jeremias Naiene, Wildo Navegantes, Opeayo Ogundiran, Charles Okot, Richard Pebody, Tamano Matsui, Hugo López-Gatell Ramírez, Catherine Smallwood, Raúl F. Pérez‐Tasigchana, Aisling Vaughan, George Sie Williams, Basma AbdElGawad, Amarnath Babu, Evans Buliva, Finlay Campbell, Daniel Cardoso Portela Câmara, Zainab Eleiba, Blanche Greene-Cramer, Esther Hamblion, Mahmoud Hassan, Kaja Kaasik-Aaslav, Basant Mohamed, Victoria Ndarukwa, James R. Otieno, Jeffrey Pires, Jukka Pukkila, Felix Olaniyi Sanni, Craig A. Schultz, Tika Sedai, Laila Skrowny, Manilay Phengxay, Ariuntuya Ochirpurev, Jozica Skufca, Laura Goddard, Viema Biaukula, Peter Mala, Rosamund Lewis, Boris Pavlin, Olivier le Polain de Waroux · 发表于：The Lancet Global Health · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00198-5 · 被引用次数：248 · 研究领域：Poxvirus research and outbreaks、HIV Research and Treatment、Immune responses and vaccinations

BACKGROUND: In May 2022, several countries with no history of sustained community transmission of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) notified WHO of new mpox cases. These cases were soon followed by a large-scale outbreak, which unfolded across the world, driven by local, in-country transmission within previously unaffected countries. On July 23, 2022, WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Here, we aim to describe the main epidemiological features of this outbreak, the largest reported to date. METHODS: In this analysis of global surveillance data we analysed data for all confirmed mpox cases reported by WHO Member States through the global surveillance system from Jan 1, 2022, to Jan 29, 2023. Data included daily aggregated numbers of mpox cases by country and a case reporting form (CRF) containing information on demographics, clinical presentation, epidemiological exposure factors, and laboratory testing. We used the data to (1) describe the key epidemiological and clinical features of cases; (2) analyse risk factors for hospitalisation (by multivariable mixed-effects binary logistic regression); and (3) retrospectively analyse transmission trends. Sequencing data from GISAID and GenBank were used to analyse monkeypox virus (MPXV) genetic diversity. FINDINGS: Data from 82 807 cases with submitted CRFs were included in the analysis. Cases were primarily due to clade IIb MPXV (mainly lineage B.1, followed by lineage A.2). The outbreak w...