Simulation of crop yield using the global hydrological model H08 (crp.v1)

作者：Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki · 发表于：Geoscientific model development · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.5194/gmd-16-3275-2023 · 被引用次数：22 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies、Water resources management and optimization

Abstract. A better understanding of the food–water nexus requires the development of an integrated model that can simultaneously simulate food production and the requirements and availability of water resources. H08 is a global hydrological model that considers human water use and management (e.g., reservoir operation and crop irrigation). Although a crop growth sub-model has been included in H08 to estimate the global crop-specific calendar, its performance as a yield simulator is poor, mainly because a globally uniform parameter set was used for each crop type. In addition, the effects of CO2 fertilization and vapor pressure deficit on crop yield were not considered. Here, through country-wise parameter calibration and algorithm improvement, we enhanced H08 to simulate the yields of four major staple crops: maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. The simulated crop yield was compared with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) national yield statistics and the global dataset of historical yield for major crops (GDHY) gridded yield estimates with respect to mean bias (across nations) and time series correlation (for individual nations). Our results showed that the effects of CO2 fertilization and vapor pressure deficit had opposite impacts on crop yield. The simulated yield showed good consistency with FAO national yield. The mean biases of the major producer countries were considerably reduced to 2 %, 2 %, −2 %, and −1 % for maize, wheat, rice, and soybean, respectively. The ...