Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Based on a Comprehensive Model Using Geospatial Techniques in Songnen Plain, China

作者：Fengjie Gao, Si Zhang, Rui Yu, Yafang Zhao, Yuxin Chen, Ying Zhang · 发表于：Land · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3390/land12061184 · 被引用次数：11 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Drought is a damaging and costly natural disaster that will become more serious in the context of global climate change in the future. Constructing a reliable drought risk assessment model and presenting its spatial pattern could be significant for agricultural production. However, agricultural drought risk mapping scientifically still needs more effort. Considering the whole process of drought occurrence, this study developed a comprehensive agricultural drought risk assessment model that involved all risk components (exposure, hazard, vulnerability and mitigation capacity) and their associated criteria using geospatial techniques and fuzzy logic. The comprehensive model was applied in Songnen Plain to justify its applicability. ROC and AUC techniques were applied to evaluate its efficiency, and the prediction rate was 88.6%. The similar spatial distribution of water resources further verified the model’s reliability. The southwestern Songnen Plain is a very-high-risk (14.44%) region, determined by a high vulnerability, very high hazardousness and very low mitigation capacity, and is the region that should be paid the most attention to; the central part is a cross-risk region of high risk (24.68%) and moderate risk (27.28%) with a serious disturbance of human agricultural activities; the northeastern part is a dry grain production base with a relatively optimal agricultural production condition of very low risk (22.12%) and low risk (11.48%). Different drought mitigation str...