Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

作者：Xuezhi Tan, Xuezhi Tan, Xinxin Wu, Zeqin Huang, Jianyu Fu, Xuejin Tan, Xuejin Tan, Simin Deng, Yaxin Liu, Thian Yew Gan, Bingjun Liu · 发表于：Nature Communications · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1038/s41467-023-38510-9 · 被引用次数：157 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations、Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

Abstract Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, can cause large adverse impacts on human and natural systems. Here we quantify observed and projected changes in characteristics of sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash and investigate the role of individual anthropogenic influences on these changes. Results show that the occurrence frequency of global precipitation whiplash is projected to be 2.56 ± 0.16 times higher than in 1979–2019 by the end of the 21 st Century, with increasingly rapid and intense transitions between two extremes. The most dramatic increases of whiplash show in the polar and monsoon regions. Changes in precipitation whiplash show a much higher percentage change than precipitation totals. In historical simulations, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol emissions have increased and decreased precipitation whiplash occurrences, respectively. By 2079, anthropogenic GHGs are projected to increase 55 ± 4% of the occurrences risk of precipitation whiplash, which is driven by shifts in circulation patterns conducive to precipitation extremes.