Evaluating agricultural drought and flood abrupt alternation: A case study of cotton in the middle-and-lower Yangtze River, China

作者：Long Qian, Huayue Meng, Xiaohong Chen, Rong Tang · 发表于：Agricultural Water Management · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108313 · 被引用次数：55 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Climate change impacts on agriculture、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Drought and flood abrupt alternations (DFAA) are new challenges under climate change with particular emphasis on its affects related to agriculture. However, current regional DFAA analysis research rarely investigates agricultural DFAA with special regards to agricultural elements. In this work, a method based on a daily scale index named the standardized antecedent precipitation evapotranspiration index (SAPEI) and crop characteristics was established to investigate the characteristics of agricultural DFAA during cotton growth stages in the middle-and-lower Yangtze River (MLRYR) during 1961–2020. Additionally, the influence of DFAA on cotton climatic yield in response to flooding and drought was examined by multiple regression. The results demonstrate that the SAPEI efficiently described the relations between cotton climatic yield and the intensities of cotton drought and flood and well characterized cotton DFAA events, especially for short-term events. The most recent decade over the past six decades has seen the most frequent cotton DFAA events, and the only significant trend (p < 0.05) of cotton DFAA frequency was an upward trend in Jiangsu Province. In addition, the middle growth stage of cotton was the most DFAA-affected period within a year. Cotton drought-flood alternations (DF) were more common than flood-drought alternations (FD). The most DF-prone and FD-prone regions differed greatly, but the northeastern MLRYR was the most DFAA-prone region. In all provinces, the...