Assessment and Prediction of Landscape Ecological Risk from Land Use Change in Xinjiang, China

作者：Yaqi Cheng, Wei Song, Hao Yu, Xi Wei, Shuangqing Sheng, Bo Liu, He Gao, Junfang Li, Congjie Cao, Dazhi Yang · 发表于：Land · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3390/land12040895 · 被引用次数：31 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management、Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation

Land use change has significant impacts on the regional and global environment; thus, in-depth research on the associated ecological risks is necessary for promoting ecological restoration and sustainable development. Xinjiang, China, is characterized by a fragile ecological environment, and this study aimed to predict the land use change in the region in 2030 under different scenarios, including natural development, ecological conservation, and urban development, by using the PLUS model based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. Based on the landscape structure of regional ecosystems, we developed a comprehensive ecological risk assessment framework by utilizing a combination of landscape disturbance index, vulnerability index, and loss index. This framework allowed us to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and variations of landscape ecological risks under different scenarios in 2030. The study results indicate the following: (1) During the period from 2000 to 2020, the primary landscape type in Xinjiang was unused land. However, significant changes were observed in the area of cultivated land, mainly due to the conversion of grassland and construction land. The expansion of construction land during the urbanization process resulted in a decline in ecological landscapes, such as grassland, thereby weakening the ecosystem’s stability. (2) Under different simulation scenarios, the urban development scenario primarily led to the conversion of unused land into construct...