The Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Determinants of Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome in Northeastern China: Spatiotemporal Analysis

作者：Yanding Wang, Yanding Wang, Xianyu Wei, Ruizhong Jia, XingYu Peng, Xiushan Zhang, Meitao Yang, Zhiqiang Li, Jinpeng Guo, Yong Chen, Wenwu Yin, Wenyi Zhang, Yong Wang, Yong Wang · 发表于：JMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.2196/42673 · 被引用次数：18 · 研究领域：Viral Infections and Vectors、Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a significant zoonotic disease mainly transmitted by rodents. However, the determinants of its spatiotemporal patterns in Northeast China remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of HFRS and detect the meteorological effect of the HFRS epidemic in Northeastern China. METHODS: The HFRS cases of Northeastern China were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and meteorological data were collected from the National Basic Geographic Information Center. Times series analyses, wavelet analysis, Geodetector model, and SARIMA model were performed to identify the epidemiological characteristics, periodical fluctuation, and meteorological effect of HFRS in Northeastern China. RESULTS: A total of 52,655 HFRS cases were reported in Northeastern China from 2006 to 2020, and most patients with HFRS (n=36,558, 69.43%) were aged between 30-59 years. HFRS occurred most frequently in June and November and had a significant 4- to 6-month periodicity. The explanatory power of the meteorological factors to HFRS varies from 0.15 ≤ q ≤ 0.01. In Heilongjiang province, mean temperature with a 4-month lag, mean ground temperature with a 4-month lag, and mean pressure with a 5-month lag had the most explanatory power on HFRS. In Liaoning province, mean temperature with a 1-month lag, mean ground temperature with a 1-month lag, and me...