Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts

作者：Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Sarah R. Weiskopf, Romain Bertrand, Shawn L. Carter, Lise Comte, Mitchell J. Eaton, Ciara G. Johnson, Jonathan Lenoir, Abigail J. Lynch, Brian W. Miller, Toni Lyn Morelli, Mari Angel Rodriguez, Adam Terando, Laura M. Thompson · 发表于：Environmental Evidence · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1186/s13750-023-00296-0 · 被引用次数：269 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

BACKGROUND: Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. METHODS: We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed...