Modelling impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on inflows and sediment loads of wetlands: case study of the Anzali wetland

作者：Mehran Mahdian, Majid Hosseinzadeh, Seyed Mostafa Siadatmousavi, Zohreh Chalipa, Majid Delavar, Guo Ming, Soroush Abolfathi, Roohollah Noori · 发表于：Scientific Reports · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1038/s41598-023-32343-8 · 被引用次数：153 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Flood Risk Assessment and Management、Climate variability and models

Understanding the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the hydrogeomorpholgical parameters in wetlands ecosystems is vital for designing effective environmental protection and control protocols for these natural capitals. This study develops methodological approach to model the streamflow and sediment inputs to wetlands under the combined effects of climate and land use / land cover (LULC) changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The precipitation and temperature data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) for different Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled and bias-corrected with Euclidean distance method and quantile delta mapping (QDM) for the case of the Anzali wetland watershed (AWW) in Iran. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is adopted to project the future LULC at the AWW. The results indicate that the precipitation and air temperature across the AWW will decrease and increase, respectively, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Streamflow and sediment loads will reduce under the sole influence of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. An increase in sediment load and inflow was observed under the combined effects of climate and LULC changes, this is mainly due to the projected increased deforestation and urbanization across the AWW. The findings suggest that the densely vegetated regions, mainly located in the zones with steep slope, significantly prevent...