Assessing the Burden of Suicide Death Associated With Nonoptimum Temperature in a Changing Climate

作者：Yuchang Zhou, Ya Gao, Peng Yin, Cheng He, Wei Liu, Haidong Kan, Maigeng Zhou, Renjie Chen · 发表于：JAMA Psychiatry · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2023.0301 · 被引用次数：40 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Air Quality and Health Impacts、Health disparities and outcomes

Importance: Few studies have projected future suicide burden associated with daily temperatures in a warming climate. Objectives: To assess the burden of suicide death associated with daily nonoptimal temperature and to project the change of suicide burden associated with nonoptimal temperature in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios. Design, Setting, and Participants: Between January 1, 2013, and December 31, 2019, we conducted a time-stratified, case-control study among more than 430 000 individual suicide decedents from all counties in mainland China. Exposures: Daily meteorological data were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Fifth Generation (ERA5) reanalysis product. Historical and future temperature series were projected under 3 scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions from 1980 to 2099, with 10 general circulation models. Main Outcomes and Measures: The relative risk (RR) and burden of suicide death associated with nonoptimal temperature (ie, temperatures greater than or less than minimum-mortality temperature); the change of suicide burden associated with future climate warming in different regions and seasons under various climate change scenarios. Results: Of 432 008 individuals (mean [SD] age; 57.6 [19.0] years; 253 093 male [58.6%]) who died by suicide, 85.8% (370 577) had a middle school education or less. The temperature-suicide associations were approximately linear, with increasing deat...