Projected effects of climate change on marine ecosystems in Southeast Asian seas

作者：Susan Kay, Arlene L. Avillanosa, Victoria Cheung, Hung N. Dao, Benjamin J. Gonzales, Herminie P. Palla, Radisti A. Praptiwi, Ana M. Queirós, Sévrine Sailley, Joel Sumeldan, Wan Mohd Syazwan, Amy Yee‐Hui Then, Hin Boo Wee · 发表于：Frontiers in Marine Science · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3389/fmars.2023.1082170 · 被引用次数：27 · 研究领域：Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies、Marine and fisheries research、Ocean Acidification Effects and Responses

The seas of Southeast Asia are home to some of the world’s most diverse ecosystems and resources that support the livelihoods of millions of people. Climate change will bring temperature changes, acidification and other environmental change, with uncertain consequences for human and natural systems, but there has been little regional-scale climate modelling of the marine ecosystem. We present initial dynamically downscaled projections using a biogeochemical model suitable for coastal and shelf seas. A coupled physical-biogeochemical model with a resolution of 0.1° (approximately 11 km) was used to create projections of future environmental conditions under moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas scenarios. Changes for different parts of the region are presented, including four sensitive coastal sites of key importance for biodiversity and sustainable development: UNESCO Biosphere Reserves at Cu Lao Cham-Hoi An in Vietnam, Palawan in the Philippines and Taka Bonerate-Kepulauan Selayar in Indonesia, and coastal waters of Sabah, Malaysia, which include several marine parks. The projections show a sea that is warming by 1.1 to 2.9°C through the 21st century, with dissolved oxygen decreasing by 5 to 13 mmol m -3 and changes in many other environmental variables. The changes reach all parts of the water column and many places are projected to experience conditions well outside the range seen at the start of the century. The resulting damage to coral reefs and altered spe...