Estimating national-level measles case–fatality ratios in low-income and middle-income countries: an updated systematic review and modelling study

作者：Alyssa N. Sbarra, Jonathan F Mosser, Mark Jit, Matthew J. Ferrari, Rebecca E. Ramshaw, Patrick O’Connor, L Kendall Krause, Emma L B Rogowski, Allison Portnoy · 发表于：The Lancet Global Health · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1016/s2214-109x(23)00043-8 · 被引用次数：41 · 研究领域：Virology and Viral Diseases、Immune responses and vaccinations、Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy

BACKGROUND: To understand the current measles mortality burden, and to mitigate the future burden, it is crucial to have robust estimates of measles case fatalities. Estimates of measles case-fatality ratios (CFRs) that are specific to age, location, and time are essential to capture variations in underlying population-level factors, such as vaccination coverage and measles incidence, which contribute to increases or decreases in CFRs. In this study, we updated estimates of measles CFRs by expanding upon previous systematic reviews and implementing a meta-regression model. Our objective was to use all information available to estimate measles CFRs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) by country, age, and year. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-regression modelling study, we searched PubMed on Dec 31, 2020 for all available primary data published from Jan 1, 1980 to Dec 31, 2020, on measles cases and fatalities occurring up to Dec 31, 2019 in LMICs. We included studies that previous systematic reviews had included or which contained primary data on measles cases and deaths from hospital-based, community-based, or surveillance-based reports, including outbreak investigations. We excluded studies that were not in humans, or reported only data that were only non-primary, or on restricted populations (eg, people living with HIV), or on long-term measles mortality (eg, death from subacute sclerosing panencephalitis), and studies that did not include country-...