Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2

作者：Tao Jia, Yuhan Qi, Haoxiang Zhao, Xiaoqing Xian, Jianyu Li, Hongkun Huang, Wentao Yu, Wanxue Liu · 发表于：Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.3389/fevo.2023.1113474 · 被引用次数：22 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Biological Control of Invasive Species

Introduction Invasive alien plants (IAPs) are major hazards to biodiversity, human health, and the agricultural economy. As one of the most aggressive species of IAPs, the distribution area of Centaurea solstitialis L. has increased exponentially in the past two years since its invasion into Xinjiang, China, in July 2014. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of C. solstitialis in China can provide theoretical support for preventing the continued spread of this weed. Methods In this study, based on 5,969 valid occurrence records of C. solstitialis and 33 environmental variables, we constructed an ensemble model to predict suitable habitats for C. solstitialis under climate change scenarios. Results Our results showed that the mean true skill statistic (TSS) values, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) for the ensemble model were 0.954, 0.996, and 0.943, respectively. The ensemble model yielded more precise predictions than those of the single model. Temperature seasonality (Bio4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and human influence index (HII) have significantly disrupted the PGDs of C. solstitialis in China. The total (high) suitability habitat area of C. solstitialis in China was 275.91 × 10 4 (67.78 × 10 4 ) km 2 , accounting for 71.26 (7.06)% of China. The PGDs of C. solstitialis in China under the current climate were mainly in East Chin...