Using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of scrub typhus in Fujian Province, China

作者：Xuan Li, Xianyu Wei, Wenwu Yin, Ricardo J. Soares Magalhães, Yuanyong Xu, Liang Wen, Hong Peng, Quan Qian, Hailong Sun, Wenyi Zhang · 发表于：Parasites & Vectors · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.1186/s13071-023-05668-6 · 被引用次数：34 · 研究领域：Vector-borne infectious diseases、Zoonotic diseases and public health、Yersinia bacterium, plague, ectoparasites research

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing number of cases of scrub typhus and its expanding geographical distribution in China, its potential distribution in Fujian Province, which is endemic for the disease, has yet to be investigated. METHODS: A negative binomial regression model for panel data mainly comprising meteorological, socioeconomic and land cover variables was used to determine the risk factors for the occurrence of scrub typhus. Maximum entropy modeling was used to identify the key predictive variables of scrub typhus and their ranges, map the suitability of different environments for the disease, and estimate the proportion of the population at different levels of infection risk. RESULTS: The final multivariate negative binomial regression model for panel data showed that the annual mean normalized difference vegetation index had the strongest correlation with the number of scrub typhus cases. With each 0.1% rise in shrubland and 1% rise in barren land there was a 75.0% and 37.0% increase in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. In contrast, each unit rise in mean wind speed in the previous 2 months and each 1% increase in water bodies corresponded to a decrease of 40.0% and 4.0% in monthly scrub typhus cases, respectively. The predictions of the maximum entropy model were robust, and the average area under the curve value was as high as 0.864. The best predictive variables for scrub typhus occurrence were population density, annual mean normalized difference veget...