Nomogram Based on Platelet–Albumin–Bilirubin for Predicting Tumor Recurrence After Surgery in Alpha-Fetoprotein-Negative Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

作者：Chengkai Yang, Xiaoya Wu, Jianyong Liu, Huaxiang Wang, Yi Jiang, Zhihong Wei, Qiucheng Cai · 发表于：Journal of Hepatocellular Carcinoma · 年份：2023 · DOI：10.2147/jhc.s396433 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Inflammatory Biomarkers in Disease Prognosis、Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis、Cancer, Lipids, and Metabolism

Purpose: In this study, we developed a nomogram based on the platelet–albumin–bilirubin (PALBI) score to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) after curative resection in alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative (≤ 20 ng/mL) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Patients and Methods: A total of 194 pathologically confirmed AFP-negative HCC patients were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to screen the independent risk factors associated with RFS, and a nomogram prediction model for RFS was established according to the independent risk factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the C-index were used to evaluate the accuracy and the efficacy of the model prediction. The correction curve was used to assess the calibration of the prediction model, and decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical application value of the prediction model. Results: PALBI score, MVI, and tumor size were independent risk factors for postoperative tumor recurrence ( P < 0.05). A nomogram prediction model based on the independent predictive factors was developed to predict RFS, and it achieved a good C-index of 0.704 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.661 and the sensitivity was 73.2%. Patients with AFP-negative HCC could be divided into the high-risk group or the low-risk group by the risk score calculated by the nomogram, and there was a significant difference in RFS between the two groups ( P < 0.05). Deci...