Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)

作者：Guoqiang Ma, Qiujie Li, Jinxiu Zhang, Lixun Zhang, Hua Cheng, Zhengping Ju, Guojun Sun · 发表于：Land · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.3390/land12010120 · 被引用次数：19 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Urban Green Space and Health

It is essential to study the characteristics of land use change in the Fuxian Lake basin, a plateau lake in Yunnan Province, and to predict the basin’s future trend of land use change for sustaining the key carriers of current national major strategies such as ecological civilization, green development, and rural revitalization. This study used the Fuxian Lake basin as the subject and based on the seven periods of historical land use data, added six driving factors including human and natural factors, applied patches to generate the land-use simulation model (PLUS), and forecasted and analyzed the characteristics of land-use change in the basin in 2048 under the three scenarios of natural trend development, ecological protection, and production protection. The results showed that: (1) the overall simulation accuracy of the model was 79.14%, Kappa index was 0.73, FOM value was 0.29, and the model’s consistency was high. The model can be used to simulate future land-use changes in the Fuxian Lake basin. (2) In the natural development scenario, land-use development and the driving factors in the basin have the following relationship: rainfall and trunk road distance significantly impacted the types of land that emphasize ecological conservation and product development. Elevation and soil distribution characteristics had a significant impact on land types focused mainly on water zones and ecological protection. The land types mainly focused on urban construction were greatly affe...