Moving Land Models Toward More Actionable Science: A Novel Application of the Community Terrestrial Systems Model Across Alaska and the Yukon River Basin

作者：Yifan Cheng, K. N. Musselman, Sean Swenson, David M. Lawrence, Joseph Hamman, Katherine Dagon, Daniel Kennedy, Andrew J. Newman · 发表于：Water Resources Research · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1029/2022wr032204 · 被引用次数：22 · 研究领域：Cryospheric studies and observations、Climate change and permafrost、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Abstract The Arctic hydrological system is an interconnected system that is experiencing rapid change. It is comprised of permafrost, snow, glacier, frozen soils, and inland river systems. In this study, we aim to lower the barrier of using complex land models in regional applications by developing a generalizable optimization methodology and workflow for the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (CTSM), to move them toward a more Actionable Science paradigm. Further end‐user engagement is required to make science such as this “fully actionable.” We applied CTSM across Alaska and the Yukon River Basin at 4‐km spatial resolution. We highlighted several potentially useful high‐resolution CTSM configuration changes. Additionally, we performed a multi‐objective optimization using snow and river flow metrics within an adaptive surrogate‐based model optimization scheme. Four representative river basins across our study domain were selected for optimization based on observed streamflow and snow water equivalent observations at 10 SNOTEL sites. Fourteen sensitive parameters were identified for optimization with half of them not directly related to hydrology or snow processes. Across fifteen out‐of‐sample river basins, 13 had improved flow simulations after optimization and the mean Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of daily flow increased from 0.43 to 0.63 in a 30‐year evaluation. In addition, we adapted the Shapley Decomposition to disentangle each parameter's contribution to streamflow performa...