Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

作者：Natalie J. Briscoe, Shane D. Morris, Paul D. Mathewson, Lauren B. Buckley, Marko Jusup, Ofir Levy, Ilya M. D. Maclean, Sylvain Pincebourde, Eric A. Riddell, Jessica Roberts, Rafael Schouten, Michael W. Sears, Michael Kearney · 发表于：Global Change Biology · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1111/gcb.16557 · 被引用次数：208 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Physiological and biochemical adaptations、Insect and Arachnid Ecology and Behavior

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the...