A Prediction Model for the Outbreak Date of Spring Pollen Allergy in Beijing Based on Satellite-Derived Phenological Characteristics of Vegetation Greenness

作者：Xinyi Yang, Wenquan Zhu, Cenliang Zhao · 发表于：Remote Sensing · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.3390/rs14225891 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Remote Sensing in Agriculture、Species Distribution and Climate Change、Land Use and Ecosystem Services

Pollen allergies have a serious impact on people’s physical and mental health. Accurate and efficient prediction of the outbreak date of pollen allergies plays an important role in the conservation of people sensitive to allergenic pollen. It is a frontier research to combine new social media data and satellite data to develop a model to forecast the outbreak date of pollen allergies. This study extracted the real outbreak dates of spring pollen allergies from Sina Weibo records from 2011 to 2021 in Beijing and calculated five vegetation indices of three vegetation types as phenological characteristics within the 30 days before the average outbreak date. The sensitivity coefficients and correlation coefficients were used to screen the phenological characteristics that best reflected the outbreak date of spring pollen allergy. Based on the best characteristic, two kinds of prediction models for the outbreak date of spring pollen allergy in Beijing were established (the linear fit prediction model and the cumulative linear fit prediction model), and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated as the prediction accuracy. The results showed that (1) the date of EVI2 (2-band enhanced vegetation index) in evergreen forest first reaching 0.138 can best reflect the outbreak date of pollen allergies in spring, and (2) the cumulative linear fit prediction model based on EVI2 in evergreen forests can obtain a high accuracy with an average RMSE of 3.6 days, which can predict the out...