Attribution analysis of lake surface water temperature changing —taking China’s six main lakes as example

作者：Zongqi Peng, Kun Yang, Chunxue Shang, Haimei Duan, Linfeng Tang, Yang Zhang, Yifan Cao, Yi Luo · 发表于：Ecological Indicators · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109651 · 被引用次数：20 · 研究领域：Aquatic Ecosystems and Phytoplankton Dynamics、Fish Ecology and Management Studies、Marine and coastal ecosystems

Currently, lake surface water temperature (LSWT), as one of the most important indicators for evaluating lake health, is rapidly rising due to the influence of large-scale climate change and regional human activities in rapidly developing urban areas. The variety of LSWT will affect water environment problems such as lake water quality, aquatic organism growth and reproduction. Therefore, this study selected six lakes that play a crucial role in China’s economic and social development, and explored the causes and driving mechanisms of LSWT changes, which would provide support for the governance and protection of the ecological environment. Meanwhile, according to the fluctuation of lake boundary, the lakes were divided into two types, A and B. Based on the classification, the changing characteristics of LSWT from 2001 to 2018 were analyzed, and the stepwise polynomial regression analysis was used as new method to quantify the contribution from each driving factor to LSWT. Then, the driving mechanisms of natural and anthropogenic factors to LSWT was discussed. Results show that (1) the mean comprehensive change rates of LSWT-day and LSWT-night showed an upward trend in the past 18 years. The correlation between near surface air temperature (NSAT) and the annual average LSWT of the 6 lakes was higher than that of other factors, and this feature was most significant in spring, autumn and winter. The correlation between anthropogenic factors and annual average LSWT was affected b...