Prediction model for delirium in patients with cardiovascular surgery: development and validation

作者：Yanghui Xu, Yunjiao Meng, Xuan Qian, Honglei Wu, Yanmei Liu, Peipei Ji, Hong‐Lin Chen · 发表于：Journal of Cardiothoracic Surgery · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1186/s13019-022-02005-3 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Intensive Care Unit Cognitive Disorders、Enhanced Recovery After Surgery、Thermal Regulation in Medicine

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram model for discriminating the risk of delirium in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. METHODS: From January 2017 to June 2020, we collected data from 838 patients who underwent cardiovascular surgery at the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University. Patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a 5:5 ratio. A nomogram model was established based on logistic regression. Discrimination and calibration were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. RESULTS: The incidence of delirium was 48.3%. A total of 389 patients were in the modelling group, and 449 patients were in the verification group. Logistic regression analysis showed that CPB duration (OR [Formula: see text] 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001-1.008, [Formula: see text] 0.018), postoperative serum sodium (OR [Formula: see text] 1.112, 95% CI: 1.049-1.178, [Formula: see text] 0.001), age (OR [Formula: see text] 1.027, 95% CI: 1.006-1.048, [Formula: see text] 0.011), and postoperative MV (OR [Formula: see text] 1.019, 95% CI: 1.008-1.030, [Formula: see text] 0.001) were independent risk factors. The results showed that AUC[Formula: see text] was 0.712 and that the 95% CI was 0.661-0.762. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the predicted results of the model were in good agreement with the actual situation ([Formula: see text] 6.200, [Formula: see text] 0.625). The results of verification showed that the A...