Richness and distribution of endangered orchid species under different climate scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

作者：Huawei Hu, Yanqiang Wei, Wenying Wang, Ji Suonan, Shixiong Wang, Zhe Chen, Jin‐Hong Guan, Yanfang Deng · 发表于：Frontiers in Plant Science · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.3389/fpls.2022.948189 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Plant and animal studies、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Predicting the potential influences of climate change on the richness and distribution is essential for the protection of endangered species. Most orchid species are narrowly distributed in specific habitats and are very vulnerable to habitat disturbance, especially for endangered orchid species on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this study, we simulated the potential influences of climate change on the richness and distribution of 17 endangered orchid species on the QTP using the MaxEnt model based on the shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSPs) in the 2050s and 2070s. The results showed that aspect, annual precipitation, elevation, mean temperature of driest quarter, topsoil pH (H 2 O), and topsoil sand fraction had a large influence on the potential distribution of endangered orchid species on the QTP. The area of potential distribution for orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 under the current climate scenario was 14,462 km 2 (accounting for 0.56% of QTP), and it was mostly distributed in the southeastern part of QTP. The area of orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 under SSP370 in the 2070s was the smallest (9,370 km 2 : only accounting for 0.36% of QTP). The largest area of potential distribution for orchid species richness ranging from 6 to 11 was 45,394 km 2 (accounting for 1.77% of QTP) under SSP585 in the 2070s. The total potential distribution area of 17 orchid species richness all increased from the 2050s to the 2070s under SSP126, SSP2...