Drivers of African Filovirus (Ebola and Marburg) Outbreaks

作者：Patrick R. Stephens, Mekala Sundaram, Susana Ferreira, Nicole Gottdenker, Kaniz Fatema Nipa, Annakate M. Schatz, John P. Schmidt, John M. Drake · 发表于：Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1089/vbz.2022.0020 · 被引用次数：20 · 研究领域：Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research、Zoonotic diseases and public health、Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology

Outbreaks of African filoviruses often have high mortality, including more than 11,000 deaths among 28,562 cases during the West Africa Ebola outbreak of 2014–2016. Numerous studies have investigated the factors that contributed to individual filovirus outbreaks, but there has been little quantitative synthesis of this work. In addition, the ways in which the typical causes of filovirus outbreaks differ from other zoonoses remain poorly described. In this study, we quantify factors associated with 45 outbreaks of African filoviruses (ebolaviruses and Marburg virus) using a rubric of 48 candidate causal drivers. For filovirus outbreaks, we reviewed >700 peer-reviewed and gray literature sources and developed a list of the factors reported to contribute to each outbreak ( i.e. , a “driver profile” for each outbreak). We compare and contrast the profiles of filovirus outbreaks to 200 background outbreaks, randomly selected from a global database of 4463 outbreaks of bacterial and viral zoonotic diseases. We also test whether the quantitative patterns that we observed were robust to the influences of six covariates, country-level factors such as gross domestic product, population density, and latitude that have been shown to bias global outbreak data. We find that, regardless of whether covariates are included or excluded from models, the driver profile of filovirus outbreaks differs from that of background outbreaks. Socioeconomic factors such as trade and travel, wild game c...