Contribution of anthropogenic, vegetation, and topographic features to forest fire occurrence in Poland

作者：Mariusz Ciesielski, Radomir Bałazy, Bolesław Borkowski, Wiesław Szczęsny, Michał Zasada, Jan Kaczmarowski, Mirosław Kwiatkowski, Ryszard Szczygieł, Slobodan Milanović · 发表于：iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.3832/ifor4052-015 · 被引用次数：23 · 研究领域：Fire effects on ecosystems、Landslides and related hazards

Climate is one of the main causes of forest fires in Europe. In addition, forest fires are influenced by other factors, such as the reconstruction of tree stands with a uniform species composition and increasing human pressure. At the same time, the increasing number of fires is accompanied by a steady increase in the number and quality of spatial information collected, which affects the ability to conduct more accurate studies of forest fires. The appropriate use of spatial information systems (GIS) together with all the collected information on fires could provide new insights into their causes and, in further steps, allow the development of new, more accurate predictive models. The objectives of the study were: (i) to estimate the probability of fire occurrence in the period 2007-2016; (ii) to evaluate the performance of the developed model; (iii) to identify and quantify anthropogenic, topographic and stand factors affecting the probability of fire occurrence in forest areas in Poland. To achieve these objectives, a statistical model based on a logistic regression approach was built using the nationwide forest fire database for the period from 2007 to 2016. The information in the database was obtained from the Polish State Forest Information System (SILP). Then it was supplemented with spatial, topographic and socio-economic information from various spatial and statistical databases. The results showed that fire probability is significantly positively affected by populati...