Ice thickness and morphological analysis reveal the future glacial lake distribution and formation probability in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

作者：Taigang Zhang, Weicai Wang, Baosheng An, Tanguang Gao, Tandong Yao · 发表于：Global and Planetary Change · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103923 · 被引用次数：43 · 研究领域：Cryospheric studies and observations、Climate change and permafrost、Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics

Owing to intense glacial retreat and melting, it is anticipated that numerous glacial lakes will be formed in the next few decades. However, their development and distribution patterns in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings still need to be elucidated. In this study, a published glacier ice thickness distribution dataset was employed to fully detect overdeepened glacier beds as potential glacial lakes. We selected and expanded four morphological metrics to determine the formation probability of potential glacial lakes: surface slope, break in slope, lake area, and position on the glacier. The results revealed that 15,826 potential glacial lakes with areas >0.02 km2 exist in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, covering an area of 2253.95 ± 1291.29 km2 with a water volume of 60.49 ± 28.94 km3 that would contribute to an equivalent sea level rise of 0.16 ± 0.08 mm. The experimental comparison and uncertainty assessment for the overdeepening processing showed that the different extraction methods and basic digital elevation models used could lead to non-negligible errors in the results (at least ±30%), which were ignored in previous studies, contributing to major divergences between the several current inventories of potential glacial lakes in the plateau. Notably, approximately 90% of the total area of the potential glacial lakes is concentrated in the lower half of the individual glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings. >70% of the potential glacial lake...