Estimation and Potential Analysis of Land Population Carrying Capacity in Shanghai Metropolis

作者：Hefeng Wang, Yuan Cao, Xiaohu Wu, Ao Zhao, Yi Xie · 发表于：International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.3390/ijerph19148240 · 被引用次数：5 · 研究领域：Water Resources and Sustainability、Urban Transport and Accessibility、Child Nutrition and Water Access

It is of great practical significance to understand the current situation of urban land carrying capacity, explore its potential space, and continuously improve the economic adaptability and resilience and population carrying capacity of megacities. Based on the guiding principle of territorial spatial division and the concept of moderate-scale resilient cities, combined with GIS technology, this study aims to divide land spaces into three types and construct different index systems to evaluate the land carrying capacity of Shanghai in different spaces. Furthermore, we propose different schemes of estimating subspace land population carrying capacity, and the carrying potential of land population is analysed as well. The acquired results demonstrate three key points. Firstly, the total land population capacity of Shanghai is estimated at 25,476.61-32,047.27 people, with urban land space being the most dominant for the city's population carrying capacity. Furthermore, the inner suburbs carry the largest population, and the urban centre carries a larger population density than other areas. Secondly, there are significant spatial differences in land population carrying potential. Compared with the demographic data from 2017, Shanghai still has a population carrying potential of 1293.30-7863.97 people and a suitable population carrying potential of 4578.64 people. The population of the urban centre is near the upper limit of the estimated population carrying capacity, and the sub...