Effects of climate change in European croplands and grasslands: productivity, greenhouse gas balance and soil carbon storage

作者：Marco Carozzi, Raphaël Martin, Katja Klumpp, Raia Silvia Massad · 发表于：Biogeosciences · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.5194/bg-19-3021-2022 · 被引用次数：42 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics

Abstract. Knowledge of the effects of climate change on agro-ecosystems is fundamental to identifying local actions aimed to maintain productivity and reduce environmental issues. This study investigates the effects of climate perturbation on the European crop and grassland production systems, combining the findings from two specific biogeochemical models. Accurate and high-resolution management and pedoclimatic data were employed. Results have been verified for the period 1978–2004 (historical period) and projected until 2099 with two divergent intensities: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. We have provided a detailed overview of productivity and the impacts on management (sowing dates, water demand, nitrogen use efficiency). Biogenic greenhouse gas balance (N2O, CH4, CO2) was calculated, including an assessment of the gases' sensitivity to the leading drivers, and a net carbon budget on production systems was compiled. Results confirmed a rise in productivity in the first half of the century (+5 % for croplands at +0.2 t DM ha−1 yr−1, +1 % for grasslands at +0.1 t DM ha−1 yr−1; DM denotes dry matter), whereas a significant reduction in productivity is expected during the period 2050–2099, caused by the shortening of the length of the plant growing cycle associated with rising temperatures. This effect was more pronounced for the more pessimistic climate scenario (−6.1 % for cr...