Assess transmissibility of different influenza subtypes: Based on a SEIABR model

作者：Haoyun Dai, Nan Zhou, Mengxiang Chen, Guoqun Li, Xing Yu, Yi Su, Shanghui Yi, Xiuqin Hong, Meifang Quan, Wenting Zha, Yuan Lv · 发表于：Infection Genetics and Evolution · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1016/j.meegid.2022.105319 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Influenza Virus Research Studies、COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Zoonotic diseases and public health

Objective Influenza is a worldwide public health problem which causes a serious economic and health burden. In order to provide a scientific basis for improving the prevention and control level of influenza, using dynamic model to evaluate the infection rates of influenza different subtypes from 2010 to 2019 in China. Methods This article established SEIABR model based on influenza cases reported by China National Influenza Center from 2010 to 2019. And calculated the transmission rate and R e by combined the natural birth rate, natural death rate, infectious rate, proportion of asymptomatic patients, proportion of untreated patients, recovery rate and fatality rate. Results The average infection rate of influenza was (2.38 ± 0.59) × 10 −10 , and influenza A was (2.24 ± 0.51) × 10 −10 , influenza B was (2.21 ± 0.68) × 10 −10 . And average R e were 1.60, 1.51, 1.49. In addition, the infection rates of A /H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yamagata and B/Victoria were (2.47 ± 0.51) × 10 −10 , (2.25 ± 0.48) × 10 −10 , (2.15 ± 0.61) × 10 −10 , and (2.30 ± 0.66) × 10 −10 and average R e were 1.67, 1.52, 1.44, 1.56. Conclusion Between each year, flu transmission capacity had fluctuation. Influenza A was more transmissible than influenza B, and during the major subtypes, influenza A/H1N1 was the most transmissible.