Climate Change Increases the Severity and Duration of Soil Water Stress in the Temperate Forest of Eastern North America

作者：Cybèle Cholet, Daniel Houle, Jean‐Daniel Sylvain, Frédérik Doyon, Audrey Maheu · 发表于：Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.3389/ffgc.2022.879382 · 被引用次数：37 · 研究领域：Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Tree-ring climate responses、Climate change and permafrost

Under climate change, drought conditions are projected to intensify and soil water stress is identified as one of the primary drivers of the decline of forests. While there is strong evidence of such megadisturbance in semi-arid regions, large uncertainties remain in North American temperate forests and fine-scale assessments of future soil water stress are needed to guide adaptation decisions. The objectives of this study were to (i) assess the impact of climate change on the severity and duration of soil water stress in a temperate forest of eastern North America and (ii) identify environmental factors driving the spatial variability of soil water stress levels. We modeled current and future soil moisture at a 1 km resolution with the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS). Despite a slight increase in precipitation during the growing season, the severity (95th percentile of absolute soil water potential) and duration (number of days where absolute soil water potential is greater than or equal to 9,000 hPa) of soil water stress were projected to increase on average by 1,680 hPa and 6.7 days in 80 years under RCP8.5, which correspond to a 33 and 158% increase compared to current levels. The largest increase in severity was projected to occur in areas currently experiencing short periods of soil water stress, while the largest increase in duration is rather likely to occur in areas already experiencing prolonged periods of soil water stress. Soil depth and, to a lesser extent, ...