Contrasting State‐Dependent Effects of Natural Forcing on Global and Local Climate Variability

作者：Beatrice Ellerhoff, Moritz Kirschner, Elisa Ziegler, Max Holloway, Louise C. Sime, Kira Rehfeld · 发表于：Geophysical Research Letters · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1029/2022gl098335 · 被引用次数：35 · 研究领域：Geology and Paleoclimatology Research、Climate variability and models、Tree-ring climate responses

Abstract Natural forcing from solar and volcanic activity contributes significantly to climate variability. The post‐eruption cooling of strong volcanic eruptions was hypothesized to have led to millennial‐scale variability during Glacials. Cooling induced by volcanic eruption is potentially weaker in the warmer climate. The underlying question is whether the climatic response to natural forcing is state‐dependent. Here, we quantify the response to natural forcing under Last Glacial and Pre‐Industrial conditions in an ensemble of climate model simulations. We evaluate internal and forced variability on annual to multicentennial scales. The global temperature response reveals no state dependency. Small local differences result mainly from state‐dependent sea ice changes. Variability in forced simulations matches paleoclimate reconstructions significantly better than in unforced scenarios. Considering natural forcing is therefore important for model‐data comparison and future projections.