Predicting hospitalisation for heart failure and death in patients with, or at risk of, heart failure before first hospitalisation: a retrospective model development and external validation study

作者：Joshua Bradley, Erik B. Schelbert, Laura Bonnett, Gavin A. Lewis, Jakub Lagan, Christopher Orsborne, Pamela Frances Brown, Josephine H. Naish, Simon G. Williams, Theresa A. McDonagh, Matthias Schmitt, Chris Miller · 发表于：The Lancet Digital Health · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00045-0 · 被引用次数：30 · 研究领域：Heart Failure Treatment and Management、Frailty in Older Adults、Cardiovascular Function and Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Identifying people who are at risk of being admitted to hospital (hospitalised) for heart failure and death, and particularly those who have not previously been hospitalised for heart failure, is a priority. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic model involving contemporary deep phenotyping that can be used to generate individual risk estimates of hospitalisation for heart failure or all-cause mortality in patients with, or at risk of, heart failure, but who have not previously been hospitalised for heart failure. METHODS: Between June 1, 2016, and May 31, 2018, 3019 consecutive adult patients (aged ≥16 years) undergoing cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) at Manchester University National Health Service Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK, were prospectively recruited into a model development cohort. Candidate predictor variables were selected according to clinical practice and literature review. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to develop a prognostic model. The final model was validated in an external cohort of 1242 consecutive adult patients undergoing CMR at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, between June 1, 2010, and March 25, 2016. Exclusion criteria for both cohorts included previous hospitalisation for heart failure. Our study outcome was a composite of first hospitalisation for heart failure or all-cause mortality after CMR. Model performance was evaluated in ...