Association of stay-at-home orders and COVID-19 incidence and mortality in rural and urban United States: a population-based study

作者：David H. Jiang, Darius J. Roy, Benjamin D. Pollock, Nilay D. Shah, Rozalina G. McCoy · 发表于：BMJ Open · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1136/bmjopen-2021-055791 · 被引用次数：16 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Geriatric Care and Nursing Homes、COVID-19 and healthcare impacts

OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between stay-at-home order implementation and the incidence of COVID-19 infections and deaths in rural versus urban counties of the United States. DESIGN: We used an interrupted time-series analysis using a mixed effects zero-inflated Poisson model with random intercept by county and standardised by population to examine the associations between stay-at-home orders and county-level counts of daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths in rural versus urban counties between 22 January 2020 and 10 June 2020. We secondarily examined the association between stay-at-home orders and mobility in rural versus urban counties using Google Community Mobility Reports. INTERVENTIONS: Issuance of stay-at-home orders. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Co-primary outcomes were COVID-19 daily incidence of cases (14-day lagged) and mortality (26-day lagged). Secondary outcome was mobility. RESULTS: Stay-at-home orders were implemented later (median 30 March 2020 vs 28 March 2020) and were shorter in duration (median 35 vs 54 days) in rural compared with urban counties. Indoor mobility was, on average, 2.6%-6.9% higher in rural than urban counties both during and after stay-at-home orders. Compared with the baseline (pre-stay-at-home) period, the number of new COVID-19 cases increased under stay-at-home by incidence risk ratio (IRR) 1.60 (95% CI, 1.57 to 1.64) in rural and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.30 to 1.42) in urban counties, while the number of new COVID-19 deaths...