Performance evaluations of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models for precipitation simulation over the Hanjiang River Basin, China

作者：Dong Wang, Jiahong Liu, Hao Wang, Weiwei Shao, Chao Mei, Xiangyi Ding · 发表于：Journal of Water and Climate Change · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.2166/wcc.2022.402 · 被引用次数：29 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Abstract Projecting the climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources relies on the climate scenarios simulated by general circulation models (GCMs), which requires a systematic and comprehensive assessment of the GCMs’ simulation performances at a regional scale. This study evaluates the performances of precipitation simulation over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) by six climate models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the corresponding six previous models from the CMIP5, and their multi-model ensemble (MME) based on the observational data in the CN05.1. To our knowledge, this is the first preliminary study in the HRB. The Taylor diagram (including standard deviation, root-mean-square difference, and correlation coefficient) and Taylor skill score are used for the evaluation of GCMs’ precipitation simulation performances. The spatial pattern and temporal pattern over the HRB simulated by CMIP6 and CMIP5 models are compared by relative biases. The results of the Taylor diagram and skill score show that CMIP6 models don't necessarily perform better than the corresponding previous CMIP5 models in simulating precipitation over the HRB. The MME exhibits superior performance compared to that of any individual model, and the CMIP6-MME is more skillful than the CMIP5-MME. As to the spatial and temporal variation characteristics, the precipitation biases are both present in CMIP6 and CMIP5 models, and the bias of the CMIP6-MME is lower than t...