Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis

作者：Ryan M Barber, Reed J D Sorensen, David M. Pigott, Catherine Bisignano, Austin Carter, Joanne O Amlag, James K. Collins, Cristiana Abbafati, Christopher Adolph, Adrien Allorant, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Bree Bang-Jensen, Emma Castro, Suman Chakrabarti, Rebecca M Cogen, Emily Combs, Haley Comfort, Kimberly Cooperrider, Xiaochen Dai, Farah Daoud, Amanda Deen, Lucas Earl, Megan Erickson, Samuel B Ewald, Alize J Ferrari, Abraham D. Flaxman, Joseph Frostad, Nancy Fullman, J Giles, Gaorui Guo, Jiawei He, Monika Helak, Erin Hulland, Bethany M Huntley, Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Kate E LeGrand, Stephen S Lim, Akiaja Lindstrom, Emily Linebarger, Rafael Lozano, Beatrice Magistro, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Johan Månsson, Ana Maria Mantilla Herrera, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohsen Naghavi, Shuhei Nomura, Christopher M Odell, Latera Tesfaye Olana, Samuel M Ostroff, Maja Pasovic, Spencer A Pease, Robert C. Reiner, Grace Reinke, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Damian Santomauro, Aleksei Sholokhov, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Ruri Syailendrawati, Roman Topór-Mądry, Anh Vo, Theo Vos, Rebecca Walcott, Ally Walker, Kirsten E. Wiens, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Nahom Alemseged Worku, Peng Zheng, Simon I Hay, Emmanuela Gakidou, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(22)00484-6 · 被引用次数：320 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research、Immune responses and vaccinations

Background Timely, accurate, and comprehensive estimates of SARS-CoV-2 daily infection rates, cumulative infections, the proportion of the population that has been infected at least once, and the effective reproductive number (R effective ) are essential for understanding the determinants of past infection, current transmission patterns, and a population's susceptibility to future infection with the same variant. Although several studies have estimated cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections in select locations at specific points in time, all of these analyses have relied on biased data inputs that were not adequately corrected for. In this study, we aimed to provide a novel approach to estimating past SARS-CoV-2 daily infections, cumulative infections, and the proportion of the population infected, for 190 countries and territories from the start of the pandemic to Nov 14, 2021. This approach combines data from reported cases, reported deaths, excess deaths attributable to COVID-19, hospitalisations, and seroprevalence surveys to produce more robust estimates that minimise constituent biases. Methods We produced a comprehensive set of global and location-specific estimates of daily and cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections through Nov 14, 2021, using data largely from Johns Hopkins University (Baltimore, MD, USA) and national databases for reported cases, hospital admissions, and reported deaths, as well as seroprevalence surveys identified through previous reviews, SeroTracker, and gov...