Global, regional, and national time trends in mortality for congenital heart disease, 1990–2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

作者：Zhanhao Su, Zhiyong Zou, Simon I Hay, Yiwei Liu, Shoujun Li, Huiwen Chen, Mohsen Naghavi, Meghan Zimmerman, Gerard R. Martin, Lauren B. Wilner, Craig Sable, Christopher J L Murray, Nicholas J Kassebaum, George Patton, Hao Zhang · 发表于：EClinicalMedicine · 年份：2022 · DOI：10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101249 · 被引用次数：283 · 研究领域：Congenital Heart Disease Studies、Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare、Congenital heart defects research

BACKGROUND: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality from birth defects worldwide. We report an overview of trends in CHD mortality in 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: Cause-specific CHD mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We utilised an age-period-cohort model to estimate overall annual percentage changes in mortality (net drifts), annual percentage changes from 0 to 4 to 65-69 years (local drifts), period and cohort relative risks (period/cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. This approach allows for the examination and differentiation of age, period, and cohort effects in the mortality trends, with the potential to identify disparities and treatment gaps in cardiac care. FINDINGS: CHD is the leading cause of deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in those under 20 years. Global CHD deaths in 2019 were 217,000 (95% uncertainty interval 177,000-262,000). There were 129 countries with at least 50 deaths. India, China, Pakistan, and Nigeria had the highest mortality, accounting for 39.7% of deaths globally. Between 1990 and 2019, the net drift of CHD mortality ranged from -2.41% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] -2.55, -2.67) in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries to -0.62% per year (95% CI: -0.82, -0.42) in low-SDI countries. Globally, there was an emerging transition in the age distribution of ...