Assessment of global meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought under future warming based on CMIP6

作者：Jianxin Zeng, Jiaxian Li, Xingjie Lu, Zhongwang Wei, Wei Shangguan, Shupeng Zhang, Shupeng Zhang, Yongjiu Dai, Shulei Zhang, Shulei Zhang · 发表于：Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1016/j.aosl.2021.100143 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Climate variability and models、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Quantifying the changes and propagation of drought is of great importance for regional eco-environmental safety and water-related disaster management under global warming. In this study, phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project was employed to examine future meteorological (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), hydrological (Standardized Runoff Index, SRI), and agricultural (Standardized Soil moisture Index, SSI) drought under two warming scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that, across the globe, different types of drought events generally exhibit a larger spatial extent, longer duration, and greater severity from 1901 to 2100, with SPEI drought experiencing the greatest increases. Although SRI and SSI drought are expected to be more intensifying than SPI drought, the models show higher consistency in projections of SPI changes. Regions with robust drying trends include the southwestern United States, Amazon Basin, Mediterranean, southern Africa, southern Asia, and Australia. It is also found that meteorological drought shows a higher correlation with hydrological drought than with agricultural drought, especially in warm and humid regions. Additionally, the maximum correlation between meteorological and hydrological drought tends to be achieved at a short time scale. These findings have important implications for drought monitoring and policy interventions for water resource managem...