Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns, climate change effects, and conservation priorities

作者：Prabha Amarasinghe, Narayani Barve, Hashendra Kathriarachchi, Bette A. Loiselle, Nico Cellinese · 发表于：Ecology and Evolution · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1002/ece3.8415 · 被引用次数：7 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Wildlife Ecology and Conservation

Abstract Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon , in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon , and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon . We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land‐cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of Memecylon were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic Memecylon restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species’ habitats can be expected as early as 2041–2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with p...