Development of a Predictive Model for Screening Patients with Psoriasis at Increased Risk of Psoriatic Arthritis

作者：Yiyi Wang, Lingyan Zhang, Min Yang, Yanze Cao, Mingxin Zheng, Yuanxia Gu, Hongxiang Hu, Hui Chen, Min Zhang, Jingyi Li, Li Qiu, Wei Li · 发表于：Dermatology and Therapy · 年份：2021 · DOI：10.1007/s13555-021-00663-0 · 被引用次数：22 · 研究领域：Spondyloarthritis Studies and Treatments、Rheumatoid Arthritis Research and Therapies、Psoriasis: Treatment and Pathogenesis

This study aimed to develop a predictive model based on ultrasound variables which can be used to screen patients with psoriasis who are prone to progress to psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in clinical practice. This is a cross-sectional study conducted in a single center from October 2018 to November 2020. All subjects (non-PsA group, PsA group, and control group) underwent an ultrasound examination and their ultrasound abnormalities were recorded. On the basis of statistical analysis and clinical experts’ advice, several variables were selected for modelling. We used logistic regression to establish the prediction model. To assess the discrimination and accuracy of this model, internal validation and external validation were performed. A total of 852 patients with psoriasis but without PsA, 261 patients with PsA, and 86 healthy volunteers were included. Ultimately, the predictive model consisted of six variables, namely hand joint power Doppler (PD) signals (grade 0: OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.94–4.47; grade ≥ 1: OR 109.30, 95% CI 14.35–832.27; P < 0.001), wrist joint synovial thickening (grade 1: OR 1.29, 95% CI 0.69–2.43; grade 2: OR 4.30, 95% CI 1.92–9.65; grade 3: OR 11.05, 95% CI 1.01–120.64; P = 0.001), knee joint PD signals (grade 0: OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.56–1.80; grade ≥ 1: OR 14.77, 95% CI 3.99–54.69; P < 0.001), toe joint PD signals (grade 0: OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.78–1.79; grade ≥ 1: OR 5.74, 95% CI 2.84–11.63; P < 0.001), quadriceps tendon and patellar tendon enthesitis (OR 1.95, 95% C...